Athletic Club 0–0 AlavésMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 19 September 2026

0–0

Draw

Alavés

> 🧠 Model verdict

✗ Result against the lean

Pre-match, Bawler had Athletic Club at 46%, draw at 27%, Alavés at 27%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-0. The model's headline call was Athletic Club to win.

> Pre-match probability vs result

Club win

46%

Draw

27%

Actual ✓

Alavés win

27%

> Expected vs actual goals

Model expected (xG)

1.53 – 1.12

Total 2.65

Actual

0 – 0

Total 0 (-2.7 vs xG)

Match underperformed xG by 2.7 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.

> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed

High confidence

Over 1.5 Goals

Pre-match: 74%

✗ Lost

Medium confidence

Pre-match: 73%

✓ Won

Outside shot

Over 3.5 Goals

Pre-match: 28%

✗ Lost

> What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals is the model's 74% call here, built on Athletic Club's 0.41 xG advantage and a combined expected-goals total of 2.62 that favours an open encounter."

> More from Bawler