FT · Spain: La Liga · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Osasuna 1–1 Rayo VallecanoMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 19 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Osasuna at 39%, draw at 27%, Rayo Vallecano at 34%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-1. The model's headline call was Osasuna to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Osasuna win
39%
Draw
27%
Actual ✓
Vallecano win
34%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.42 – 1.32
Total 2.75
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (-0.7 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 0.7 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 76%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 52%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 74% because Osasuna's 1.41 xG and Rayo's 1.23 xG combine for 2.64 total attacking threat."