FT · Spain: La Liga · Tuesday, 15 September 2026
Alavés 0–1 ValenciaMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Tuesday, 15 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Alavés at 44%, draw at 27%, Valencia at 28%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-1. The model's headline call was Alavés to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Alavés win
44%
Draw
27%
Valencia win
28%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.50 – 1.15
Total 2.65
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (-1.6 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.6 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 74%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals sits at 74% forecast confidence, grounded in Alavés' 0.35 xG advantage and superior win probability that should translate to attacking intent at home."