FT · Spain: La Liga · Wednesday, 16 September 2026
Atlético Madrid 4–0 OsasunaMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Wednesday, 16 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Atlético Madrid at 54%, draw at 24%, Osasuna at 22%. The match ended 4-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Atlético Madrid.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Madrid win
54%
Actual ✓
Draw
24%
Osasuna win
22%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.81 – 1.08
Total 2.90
Actual
4 – 0
Total 4 (+1.1 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 1.1 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 78%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Home Win
Pre-match: 54%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 33%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the model's high-confidence call at 79%, anchored on Atlético Madrid's 0.73 xG advantage and Griezmann's creation of 25% of team chances against a visitor managing just 1.08 expected goals."