FT · SPAIN: LaLiga · Friday, 28 August 2026
Alavés 1–0 VillarrealMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Friday, 28 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Alavés at 40%, draw at 27%, Villarreal at 33%. The match ended 1-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Alavés.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Alavés win
40%
Actual ✓
Draw
27%
Villarreal win
33%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.48 – 1.31
Total 2.79
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (-1.8 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.8 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 77%
✗ Lost
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 53%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
✗ Lost