FT · SPAIN: LaLiga · Friday, 28 August 2026
Alavés 1–0 VillarrealMatch recap & how our call landed · Friday, 28 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Alavés or draw at 67%. Bawler had Alavés at 40%, the draw at 27% and Villarreal at 33%. The match finished 1–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Alavés win
40%
Result
Draw
27%
Villarreal win
33%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 1.3
Total 2.8
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (−1.8 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.8 – 1.3
From the match itself
The match produced 1.8 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 77%
Missed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 53%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.