FT · Spain: La Liga · Saturday, 12 September 2026
Osasuna 0–2 EspanyolMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 12 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Osasuna at 49%, draw at 26%, Espanyol at 25%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-2. The model's headline call was Osasuna to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Osasuna win
49%
Draw
26%
Espanyol win
25%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.60 – 1.09
Total 2.69
Actual
0 – 2
Total 2 (-0.7 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 0.7 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 75%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
1X
Pre-match: 75%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 28%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals carries 75% forecast weight as Osasuna's 0.51 expected-goals advantage at home signals sharper attacking intent than Espanyol's 1.09 xG can defend."