FT · Spain: La Liga · Saturday, 12 September 2026
Racing Santander 2–1 AlavésMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 12 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Racing Santander at 41%, draw at 27%, Alavés at 32%. The match ended 2-1 — confirming the model's lean toward Racing Santander.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Santander win
41%
Actual ✓
Draw
27%
Alavés win
32%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.45 – 1.25
Total 2.70
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (+0.3 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.3 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 75%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 51%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 75% as both sides combine for just 2.70 xG in a fixture where Racing's home advantage (41% win odds) keeps this genuinely competitive despite Alavés's league position."