FT · SPAIN: LaLiga · Monday, 31 August 2026
Osasuna 1–0 GetafeMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Monday, 31 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Osasuna at 48%, draw at 29%, Getafe at 23%. The match ended 1-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Osasuna.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Osasuna win
48%
Actual ✓
Draw
29%
Getafe win
23%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.36 – 0.86
Total 2.22
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (-1.2 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.2 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
1X
Pre-match: 77%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 18%
✗ Lost