FT · Spain: La Liga · Sunday, 06 September 2026
Alavés 5–2 OsasunaMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 06 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Alavés at 46%, draw at 27%, Osasuna at 26%. The match ended 5-2 — confirming the model's lean toward Alavés.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Alavés win
46%
Actual ✓
Draw
27%
Osasuna win
26%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.52 – 1.09
Total 2.61
Actual
5 – 2
Total 7 (+4.4 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 4.4 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 74%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
1X
Pre-match: 74%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 27%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Alavés at home holds a 0.43 expected-goals edge over Osasuna, and the model's high-confidence call is Over 1.5 Goals at 74%, reflecting a low-scoring but open contest between two sides with nothing left to fight for."