FT · SPAIN: LaLiga · Thursday, 20 August 2026
Rayo Vallecano 1–1 AlavésMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 20 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Rayo Vallecano at 49%, draw at 27%, Alavés at 24%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-1. The model's headline call was Rayo Vallecano to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Vallecano win
49%
Draw
27%
Actual ✓
Alavés win
24%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.58 – 1.03
Total 2.61
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (-0.6 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 0.6 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
1X
Pre-match: 76%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Under 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 52%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
✓ Won