FT · SPAIN: LaLiga · Thursday, 20 August 2026
Rayo Vallecano 1–1 AlavésMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 20 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Rayo Vallecano or draw at 76%. Bawler had Rayo Vallecano at 49%, the draw at 27% and Alavés at 24%. The match finished 1–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Rayo Vallecano win
49%
Draw
27%
Result
Alavés win
24%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.6 – 1.0
Total 2.6
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−0.6 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.4 – 1.9
From the match itself
The match produced 0.6 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Rayo Vallecano or draw
Pre-match: 76%
Landed
Medium confidence
Under 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 52%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.