FT · Spain: La Liga · Thursday, 27 August 2026
Celta Vigo 1–3 OsasunaMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 27 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Celta Vigo at 49%, draw at 27%, Osasuna at 25%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-3. The model's headline call was Celta Vigo to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Vigo win
49%
Draw
27%
Osasuna win
25%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.57 – 1.05
Total 2.62
Actual
1 – 3
Total 4 (+1.4 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 1.4 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 74%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
1X
Pre-match: 75%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 27%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Celta Vigo defends a European spot at home against a side with nothing to chase, and the model's 1.62 xG advantage translates to a 75% forecast for Over 1.5 Goals."