Bawler's pick
4 legs, built by our modelAn open game: both sides to score, with Rafael Navarro and Denis Bouanga both getting shots away.
St. Louis CITY SC v LAFC prediction
There is little between the sides in this MLS game. St. Louis CITY SC edge it at 39%, LAFC are 35% and a draw is 26%. Our predicted score is St. Louis CITY SC 2–1 LAFC: the most likely score if St. Louis CITY SC win, at 9%. We expect 3.0 goals in total: 1.5 for St. Louis CITY SC and 1.4 for LAFC. Both sides are more likely than not to score (60%) and three or more goals is 57%.
On form, St. Louis CITY SC have two wins, no draws and four defeats from their last six games, and LAFC have one win, three draws and two defeats. We expect St. Louis CITY SC to have 15.0 shots (4.8 on target) and LAFC 14.2 (4.3 on target), and corners at 5.9 to 4.5.
Of the players, Denis Bouanga (LAFC) tops both our lists, with 2.9 shots and 1.4 on target expected if they start. Christopher Durkin of St. Louis CITY SC is the most booked player in either squad, once every 3 games in 2026. For Bawler's pick we have gone with Both Teams to Score, Over 24.5 Total Shots, Rafael Navarro 1+ Shot and Denis Bouanga 1+ Shot. The chance all four land is 48% on our numbers, so the fair price is 11/10, or 2.07.
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
St. Louis CITY SC · last 6
LAFC · last 6
League position
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
St. Louis CITY SC or draw is 65% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025–2026 and 2026, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
MLS table →Common questions
Who will win St. Louis CITY SC vs LAFC?
Bawler's model rates this match: St. Louis CITY SC are favoured (39% win probability vs 35% for LAFC, 26% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for St. Louis CITY SC vs LAFC?
Bawler's predicted score is St. Louis CITY SC 2-1 LAFC: the most likely score if St. Louis CITY SC win, which is the likeliest result (39%). Our model puts that exact score at 8.5%. Expected total goals: 3.0.
How does Bawler predict St. Louis CITY SC vs LAFC?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives St. Louis CITY SC 39%, the draw 26% and LAFC 35%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in St. Louis CITY SC vs LAFC?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 60% chance. That is based on St. Louis CITY SC expecting 1.53 goals and LAFC 1.44.
Over or under 2.5 goals in St. Louis CITY SC vs LAFC?
Bawler's model expects 3.0 goals in total. It leans slightly towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 57%.
When are the St. Louis CITY SC v LAFC line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for St. Louis CITY SC v LAFC?
Both Teams to Score (60%), Over 24.5 Total Shots (78%), Rafael Navarro 1+ Shot (91%), Denis Bouanga 1+ Shot (91%). Our model gives all 4 landing together a 48% chance, a fair price of 11/10 (2.07). 18+, please gamble responsibly.