Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelChicago Fire FC on top, and Philip Zinckernagel getting plenty of shots away.
Chicago Fire FC v Charlotte FC prediction
Our model gives Chicago Fire FC 54%, the draw 22% and Charlotte FC 24%, so Chicago Fire FC start as favourites. If you want one score, our predicted score is Chicago Fire FC 2–1 Charlotte FC, at 9%. We expect 3.5 goals in total: 2.1 for Chicago Fire FC and 1.4 for Charlotte FC. Both teams scoring is 66% and three or more goals is 68%.
Of the players, Philip Zinckernagel of Chicago Fire FC tops our shots forecast at 3.7, if they start. Robert Lewandowski (Chicago Fire FC) leads for shots on target, at 1.2. For cards, Wilfried Zaha (Charlotte FC) has been booked once every 2 games in 2026, more often than anyone else here. Chicago Fire FC come in with two wins, one draw and three defeats in their last six. Charlotte FC have two wins, two draws and two defeats over the same run.
On shots, our forecast is 20.2 for Chicago Fire FC and 10.6 for Charlotte FC, with 6.5 and 3.6 on target, and corners at 6.1 to 3.6. So we expect Chicago Fire FC to do more of the shooting. For Bawler's pick we have gone with Chicago Fire FC or Draw, Chicago Fire FC Over 15.5 Shots and Philip Zinckernagel 2+ Shots. The chance all three land is 54% on our numbers, so the fair price is 5/6, or 1.84.
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most shots
Shots we expect them to takeMost on target
Shots on target we expectMost booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Chicago Fire FC · last 6
Charlotte FC · last 6
League position
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Chicago Fire FC or draw is 76% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025–2026 and 2026, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
MLS table →Common questions
Who will win Chicago Fire FC vs Charlotte FC?
Bawler's model rates this match: Chicago Fire FC are favoured (54% win probability vs 24% for Charlotte FC, 22% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Chicago Fire FC vs Charlotte FC?
Bawler's predicted score is Chicago Fire FC 2-1 Charlotte FC: the most likely score if Chicago Fire FC win, which is the likeliest result (54%). Our model puts that exact score at 9.2%. Expected total goals: 3.5.
How does Bawler predict Chicago Fire FC vs Charlotte FC?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Chicago Fire FC 54%, the draw 22% and Charlotte FC 24%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Chicago Fire FC vs Charlotte FC?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 66% chance. That is based on Chicago Fire FC expecting 2.15 goals and Charlotte FC 1.38.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Chicago Fire FC vs Charlotte FC?
Bawler's model expects 3.5 goals in total. It leans towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 68%.
When are the Chicago Fire FC v Charlotte FC line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Chicago Fire FC v Charlotte FC?
Chicago Fire FC or Draw (76%), Chicago Fire FC Over 15.5 Shots (79%), Philip Zinckernagel 2+ Shots (82%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 54% chance, a fair price of 5/6 (1.84). 18+, please gamble responsibly.