What we expect
In plain English
CF Montréal are more likely than not to avoid defeat, but it is close. They have lost four of their last six. The model sees around three goals in it.
What would change the call
CF Montréal or draw, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win CF Montréal vs Atlanta United FC?
Bawler's model rates this match: CF Montréal are favoured (43% win probability vs 32% for Atlanta United FC, 26% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for CF Montréal vs Atlanta United FC?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is CF Montréal 1-1 Atlanta United FC (12.1% probability). Expected total goals: 2.93.
How does Bawler predict CF Montréal vs Atlanta United FC?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives CF Montréal 43%, the draw 26% and Atlanta United FC 32%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in CF Montréal vs Atlanta United FC?
BTTS: Yes (59% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.59 and away expected goals 1.34.
Over or under 2.5 goals in CF Montréal vs Atlanta United FC?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 2.93. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).