How it finished
Toronto FC and New York City FC drew 1–1. Bawler's model favoured New York City FC at 40% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 28%. It forecast 2.6 goals and the match produced 2. Toronto FC had 14 shots (6 on target) to New York City FC's 6 (2), with 41% of the ball against 59%. Expected goals finished 0.7 to 0.4.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one first-half goal: 61%. Based on how often each side shoots and wins corners before the break, not a share of their full-match numbers.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won Toronto FC vs New York City FC?
Toronto FC and New York City FC drew 1–1. Bawler's model favoured New York City FC at 40% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 28%. It forecast 2.6 goals and the match produced 2. Toronto FC had 14 shots (6 on target) to New York City FC's 6 (2), with 41% of the ball against 59%. Expected goals finished 0.7 to 0.4.
What was the final score in Toronto FC vs New York City FC?
Toronto FC 1–1 New York City FC, played on 30 Aug 2026 in the USA: MLS. Bawler's model had gone into it with Toronto FC 32%, the draw 28% and New York City FC 40%.
What were the stats in Toronto FC vs New York City FC?
Full-time: Possession 41%–59%, Expected goals (xG) 0.7–0.4, Shots 14–6, Shots on target 6–2, Shots inside box 8–5, Big chances 1–1, Corners 7–2, Saves 1–5, Fouls 10–13, Offsides 2–3, Yellow cards 3–3.
Did both teams score in Toronto FC vs New York City FC?
Yes — both Toronto FC and New York City FC scored, finishing 1–1. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 52% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Toronto FC vs New York City FC right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Result — we said New York City FC 40%, it finished Draw (28% called); Total goals — we said 2.6, it finished 2; Both teams to score — we said 52%, it finished Yes; Model call — we said Over 1.5 Goals 73%, it finished Landed; Second call — we said Under 2.5 Goals 53%, it finished Landed.