USA: MLSSaturday 29 Aug, 23:30 UTC

Toronto FC vNew York City FC

Most likely scoreline
1–1
12% of the time · 2.65 goals expected
Toronto FC 38%Draw 32%New York City FC 30%
How we get there
Toronto FCstepNew York City FC
1.42Base xG · rolling 26-match1.24
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.42Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.24

Early projection

These are the model's current numbers for a fixture that hasn't come round yet. They firm up on matchday, once team news and lineups are in — and once the model's call is locked it's never edited, which is what makes the track record mean anything.

Toronto average 4.4 corners per game at home this season (22 competitive matches). New York City average 3.4 corners per game away from home this season (26 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
7
9
5
2
1
1
10
12
8
3
1
2
7
9
5
2
1
3
3
4
3
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win

More predictions for these teams

Toronto FC fixtures & form →New York City FC fixtures & form →

Toronto vs New York City — Head-to-Head

In 1 recorded meeting since 31 July 2026, Toronto have won 0, New York City have won 0, with 1 drawn. This covers only matches in Bawler's own settled ledger — not an all-time head-to-head record.

DateResultCompetition
31 July 2026New York City 1–1 TorontoUSA: MLS

The model's verdict for this fixture: Toronto 38% · draw 32% · New York City 30%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

Toronto predictions & form →New York City predictions & form →BTTS predictions →Over 2.5 goals predictions →Full track record →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.