FT · USA: MLS · Thursday, 20 August 2026
FC Cincinnati 2–1 New York City FCMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 20 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had FC Cincinnati at 43%, draw at 25%, New York City FC at 32%. The match ended 2-1 — confirming the model's lean toward FC Cincinnati.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Cincinnati win
43%
Actual ✓
Draw
25%
FC win
32%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.68 – 1.42
Total 3.09
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (-0.1 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.1 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 81%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
✗ Lost