FT · USA: MLS · Thursday, 20 August 2026
FC Cincinnati 2–1 New York City FCMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 20 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was FC Cincinnati or draw at 68%. Bawler had FC Cincinnati at 43%, the draw at 25% and New York City FC at 32%. The match finished 2–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
FC Cincinnati win
43%
Result
Draw
25%
New York City FC win
32%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.7 – 1.4
Total 3.1
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (−0.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.2 – 1.7
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.1 of our 3.1.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 81%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.