FT · USA: MLS · Thursday, 10 September 2026
Toronto FC 2–1 Nashville SCMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 10 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Toronto FC at 28%, draw at 28%, Nashville SC at 44%. Against expectation, the match finished 2-1. The model's headline call was Nashville SC to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
FC win
28%
Actual ✓
Draw
28%
SC win
44%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.10 – 1.44
Total 2.54
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (+0.5 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.5 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 72%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 25%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the model's 72% call, grounded in Nashville's 1.44 xG and Hany Mukhtar's creative dominance offsetting Toronto's defensive home advantage."