FT · USA: MLS · Thursday, 20 August 2026
Toronto FC 3–3 Charlotte FCMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 20 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Toronto FC at 34%, draw at 28%, Charlotte FC at 38%. Against expectation, the match finished 3-3. The model's headline call was Charlotte FC to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
FC win
34%
Draw
28%
Actual ✓
FC win
38%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.25 – 1.35
Total 2.60
Actual
3 – 3
Total 6 (+3.4 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 3.4 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 73%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Under 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 52%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 28%
✓ Won