FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 16 August 2026
New York City FC 2–3 Philadelphia UnionMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 16 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had New York City FC at 42%, draw at 30%, Philadelphia Union at 28%. Against expectation, the match finished 2-3. The model's headline call was New York City FC to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
FC win
42%
Draw
30%
Union win
28%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.62 – 1.29
Total 2.92
Actual
2 – 3
Total 5 (+2.1 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 2.1 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 77%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
BTTS No
Pre-match: 53%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 25%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals forecasts as the high-confidence call at 77% because New York City FC's 1.62 xG advantage and Alonso Martínez's 24% offensive share suggest sufficient attacking thrust against Philadelphia Union's 1.29 xG output."