FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 30 August 2026
Toronto FC 1–1 New York City FCMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 30 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Toronto FC at 32%, draw at 28%, New York City FC at 40%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-1. The model's headline call was New York City FC to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
FC win
32%
Draw
28%
Actual ✓
FC win
40%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.21 – 1.36
Total 2.57
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (-0.6 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.6 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 73%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Under 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 53%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 28%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 73% because both sides combine for 2.57 xG, with New York City FC's attacking threat—led by striker Alonso Martínez—enough to push a narrow 0.15 xG edge into a multi-goal forecast."