FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 13 September 2026
Orlando City SC 3–0 Toronto FCMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 13 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Orlando City SC at 53%, draw at 24%, Toronto FC at 23%. The match ended 3-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Orlando City SC.
> Pre-match probability vs result
SC win
53%
Actual ✓
Draw
24%
FC win
23%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.86 – 1.16
Total 3.02
Actual
3 – 0
Total 3 (-0.0 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.0 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 80%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Home Win
Pre-match: 53%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 36%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Orlando's 0.70 xG advantage and Luis Muriel's proven attacking threat drive the model's 80% confidence in Over 1.5 Goals, with a combined 3.02 expected goals signaling a high-scoring forecast."