How it finished
Toronto FC and Chicago Fire FC drew 4–4. Bawler's model favoured Chicago Fire FC at 44% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 26%. It forecast 2.8 goals; the match produced 8. Toronto FC had 18 shots (8 on target) to Chicago Fire FC's 15 (6), with 43% of the ball against 57%. Expected goals finished 1.2 to 1.9.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 67%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire FC?
Toronto FC and Chicago Fire FC drew 4–4. Bawler's model favoured Chicago Fire FC at 44% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 26%. It forecast 2.8 goals; the match produced 8. Toronto FC had 18 shots (8 on target) to Chicago Fire FC's 15 (6), with 43% of the ball against 57%. Expected goals finished 1.2 to 1.9.
What was the final score in Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire FC?
Toronto FC 4–4 Chicago Fire FC, played on 06 Sept 2026 in the USA: MLS. Bawler's model had gone into it with Toronto FC 29%, the draw 26% and Chicago Fire FC 44%.
What were the stats in Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire FC?
Full-time: Possession 43%–57%, Expected goals (xG) 1.2–1.9, Shots 18–15, Shots on target 8–6, Shots inside box 10–11, Big chances 2–4, Corners 6–3, Saves 3–4, Fouls 9–7, Offsides 2–2, Yellow cards 2–2.
Did both teams score in Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire FC?
Yes — both Toronto FC and Chicago Fire FC scored, finishing 4–4. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 56% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire FC right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Chicago Fire FC or draw 71%, it finished Draw (26% called); Total goals — we said 2.8, it finished 8; Both teams to score — we said 56%, it finished Yes; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 77%, it finished Landed; Second pick — we said Over 2.5 goals 53%, it finished Landed.