FT · USA: MLS · Thursday, 20 August 2026
Orlando City SC 0–1 Chicago Fire FCMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 20 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Orlando City SC at 37%, draw at 24%, Chicago Fire FC at 39%. The match ended 0-1 — confirming the model's lean toward Chicago Fire FC.
> Pre-match probability vs result
SC win
37%
Draw
24%
FC win
39%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.67 – 1.70
Total 3.36
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (-2.4 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 2.4 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 85%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 24%
✗ Lost