FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 20 September 2026
St. Louis CITY SC 3–1 Toronto FCMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 20 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had St. Louis CITY SC at 56%, draw at 24%, Toronto FC at 20%. The match ended 3-1 — confirming the model's lean toward St. Louis CITY SC.
> Pre-match probability vs result
SC win
56%
Actual ✓
Draw
24%
FC win
20%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.85 – 1.05
Total 2.90
Actual
3 – 1
Total 4 (+1.1 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 1.1 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
1X
Pre-match: 80%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 33%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"St. Louis's 0.84 expected-goals advantage underpins the 1X forecast at 81%, as their dominant shot quality makes either a home win or draw far more likely than a Toronto upset."