FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 18 October 2026
Red Bull New York 0–2 Toronto FCMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 18 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Red Bull New York or draw at 72%. Bawler had Red Bull New York at 48%, the draw at 24% and Toronto FC at 28%. The match finished 0–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Red Bull New York win
48%
Draw
24%
Toronto FC win
28%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.8 – 1.4
Total 3.2
Actual
0 – 2
Total 2 (−1.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.9 – 0.6
From the match itself
The match produced 1.2 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 83%
Landed
Medium confidence
Red Bull New York or draw
Pre-match: 72%
Missed
Outside shot
Not both teams to score
Pre-match: 38%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.