FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 13 September 2026
St. Louis CITY SC 4–2 Minnesota United FCMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 13 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had St. Louis CITY SC at 47%, draw at 25%, Minnesota United FC at 27%. The match ended 4-2 — confirming the model's lean toward St. Louis CITY SC.
> Pre-match probability vs result
SC win
47%
Actual ✓
Draw
25%
FC win
27%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.70 – 1.25
Total 2.94
Actual
4 – 2
Total 6 (+3.1 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 3.1 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 79%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
1X
Pre-match: 73%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 34%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the model's high-confidence call at 79%, driven by St. Louis's 0.44 xG advantage and a combined 2.94 expected goals that favors an open, goal-heavy contest."