FT · USA: MLS · Saturday, 17 October 2026
Minnesota United FC 3–2 St. Louis CITY SCMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 17 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Minnesota United FC or draw at 62%. Bawler had Minnesota United FC at 38%, the draw at 24% and St. Louis CITY SC at 38%. The match finished 3–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Minnesota United FC win
38%
Result
Draw
24%
St. Louis CITY SC win
38%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.6 – 1.6
Total 3.3
Actual
3 – 2
Total 5 (+1.7 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.6 – 1.2
From the match itself
The match produced 1.7 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 84%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 24%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.