FT · USA: MLS · Monday, 12 October 2026
St. Louis CITY SC 6–2 LA GalaxyMatch recap & how our call landed · Monday, 12 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was St. Louis CITY SC or draw at 80%. Bawler had St. Louis CITY SC at 59%, the draw at 21% and LA Galaxy at 20%. The match finished 6–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
St. Louis CITY SC win
59%
Result
Draw
21%
LA Galaxy win
20%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.2 – 1.2
Total 3.4
Actual
6 – 2
Total 8 (+4.6 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.6 – 2.0
From the match itself
The match produced 4.6 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 86%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 21%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.