FT · USA: MLS · Thursday, 10 September 2026
Portland Timbers 2–2 St. Louis CITY SCMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 10 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Portland Timbers at 39%, draw at 25%, St. Louis CITY SC at 36%. Against expectation, the match finished 2-2. The model's headline call was Portland Timbers to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Timbers win
39%
Draw
25%
Actual ✓
SC win
36%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.57 – 1.50
Total 3.06
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+0.9 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 0.9 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 81%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Portland's slight offensive edge (1.57 xG) combined with tight defensive matchup generates an 81% forecast for Over 1.5 Goals, making goal-heavy play the model's highest-conviction call."