Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo prediction — LaLiga · Thu 3 Sept · 20:00 UK

LaLiga · Thu 3 Sept · 20:00 UK
Real Sociedad 44Draw 26Celta Vigo 31
Our call before kickoff
69%
Real Sociedad or draw
Landed
2.9
Goals expected
Full time
Final 0–0
Goal before half-time (before kick-off)
66%
Both teams score (before kick-off)
59%
3+ goals (before kick-off)
56%

How it finished

Real Sociedad and Celta Vigo drew 0–0. Bawler's model favoured Real Sociedad at 44% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 26%. It forecast 2.9 goals; nobody scored. Real Sociedad had 16 shots (5 on target) to Celta Vigo's 7 (2), with 51% of the ball against 49%. Expected goals finished 1.0 to 0.4.

Real SociedadFull-time statsCelta Vigo
51%Possession49%
1.0Expected goals (xG)0.4
16Shots7
5Shots on target2
6Shots inside box3
1Big chances1
11Corners3
2Saves5
15Fouls11
2Offsides1
2Yellow cards3
What we publishedBeforeAfter
Our callReal Sociedad or draw 69%Draw (26% called)
Total goals2.90
Both teams to score59%No
Graded pickOver 1.5 goals 79%Missed

Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.

What we expected

What we expected before kickoff.

Real SociedadCelta Vigo
1.6
Goals+0.3
1.3
12.3
Shots+0.2
12.1
4.6
On target
4.6
5.5
Corners+1.1
4.4
Real SociedadCelta Vigo
0.5
Goals+0.1
0.4
5.5
Shots+0.2
5.7
2.0
On target+0.1
2.1
2.6
Corners+0.5
2.1
Real SociedadCelta Vigo
1.1
Goals+0.2
1.0
6.8
Shots+0.4
6.4
2.6
On target+0.1
2.5
2.9
Corners+0.6
2.3

Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.

Our numbers, most likely first

What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.

MarketProbability
Real Sociedad to score80%
Over 1.5 goals79%
Celta Vigo to score73%
Under 3.5 goals66%

First half — what we expected

Real Sociedad
46%
to score before half-time
Celta Vigo
36%
to score before half-time

Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 66%

Real SociedadCelta Vigo
5.51st-half shots5.7
2.01st-half shots on target2.1
2.61st-half corners2.1

First-half chances

58%Chance of 5+ shots61%
32%Chance of 7+ shots35%
83%Chance of 1+ shots on target84%
33%Chance of 3+ shots on target35%
67%Chance of 2+ corners56%
27%Chance of 4+ corners18%

How the match splits

1st half2nd half
Shots · Real Sociedad5.56.8
Shots · Celta Vigo5.76.4
Shots on target · Real Sociedad2.02.6
Shots on target · Celta Vigo2.12.5
Corners · Real Sociedad2.62.9
Corners · Celta Vigo2.12.3
How to read this

First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).

Model inputs

Expected goals gap (home minus away)+0.3 / match
Head-to-head, last 5Real Sociedad 2 · Draws 1 · Celta Vigo 2
Celta Vigo in their league tableLower half

Head to head

Jan 2026Real Sociedad 3–1 Celta Vigo
Oct 2025Celta Vigo 1–1 Real Sociedad
May 2025Real Sociedad 0–1 Celta Vigo
Dec 2024Celta Vigo 2–0 Real Sociedad
Jan 2024Celta Vigo 1–2 Real Sociedad
Full-time recap →
Settles publicly at full time · Bitcoin-anchored · verify →

Common questions

Who won Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo?

Real Sociedad and Celta Vigo drew 0–0. Bawler's model favoured Real Sociedad at 44% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 26%. It forecast 2.9 goals; nobody scored. Real Sociedad had 16 shots (5 on target) to Celta Vigo's 7 (2), with 51% of the ball against 49%. Expected goals finished 1.0 to 0.4.

What was the final score in Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo?

Real Sociedad 0–0 Celta Vigo, played on 03 Sept 2026 in the Spain: La Liga. Bawler's model had gone into it with Real Sociedad 44%, the draw 26% and Celta Vigo 31%.

What were the stats in Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo?

Full-time: Possession 51%–49%, Expected goals (xG) 1.0–0.4, Shots 16–7, Shots on target 5–2, Shots inside box 6–3, Big chances 1–1, Corners 11–3, Saves 2–5, Fouls 15–11, Offsides 2–1, Yellow cards 2–3.

Did both teams score in Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo?

No. It finished 0–0, so Real Sociedad failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 59% before kickoff.

Was Bawler's prediction for Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo right?

Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Real Sociedad or draw 69%, it finished Draw (26% called); Total goals — we said 2.9, it finished 0; Both teams to score — we said 59%, it finished No; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 79%, it finished Missed.

Around this fixture

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