Bawler's model rates this match: Real Sociedad are favoured (53% win probability vs 22% for Celta Vigo, 25% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Real Sociedad 1-1 Celta Vigo (11.8% probability). Expected total goals: 2.82.
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Real Sociedad 53%, the draw 25% and Celta Vigo 22%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
BTTS: Yes (54% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.77 and away expected goals 1.05.
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 2.82. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).