FT · Spain: La Liga · Sunday, 13 September 2026
Real Sociedad 0–3 Atlético MadridMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 13 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Real Sociedad at 40%, draw at 25%, Atlético Madrid at 36%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-3. The model's headline call was Real Sociedad to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Sociedad win
40%
Draw
25%
Madrid win
36%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.64 – 1.54
Total 3.18
Actual
0 – 3
Total 3 (-0.2 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.2 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 83%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 83% as both sides combine for 3.18 expected goals, with Real Sociedad's Oyarzabal and Atlético's Griezmann driving attacking value in a fixture separated by less than 0.30 xG."