FT · SPAIN: LaLiga · Wednesday, 26 August 2026
Real Madrid 4–1 Real SociedadMatch recap & how our call landed · Wednesday, 26 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Real Madrid to win at 69%. Bawler had Real Madrid at 69%, the draw at 18% and Real Sociedad at 13%. The match finished 4–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Real Madrid win
69%
Result
Draw
18%
Real Sociedad win
13%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.5 – 1.0
Total 3.5
Actual
4 – 1
Total 5 (+1.5 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
3.1 – 0.6
From the match itself
The match produced 1.5 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Real Madrid to win
Pre-match: 69%
Landed
Outside shot
Under 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 32%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.