FT · SPAIN: LaLiga · Wednesday, 26 August 2026
Real Madrid 4–1 Real SociedadMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Wednesday, 26 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Real Madrid at 69%, draw at 18%, Real Sociedad at 13%. The match ended 4-1 — confirming the model's lean toward Real Madrid.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Madrid win
69%
Actual ✓
Draw
18%
Sociedad win
13%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.50 – 1.03
Total 3.53
Actual
4 – 1
Total 5 (+1.5 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 1.5 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Home Win
Pre-match: 69%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Under 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 32%
✗ Lost