FT · SPAIN: LaLiga · Saturday, 22 August 2026
Valencia 0–0 Celta VigoMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 22 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Valencia at 45%, draw at 28%, Celta Vigo at 27%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-0. The model's headline call was Valencia to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Valencia win
45%
Draw
28%
Actual ✓
Vigo win
27%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.46 – 1.08
Total 2.54
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (-2.5 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 2.5 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
1X
Pre-match: 73%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Under 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 53%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 28%
✓ Won