FT · SPAIN: LaLiga · Sunday, 30 August 2026
Celta Vigo 0–2 Athletic ClubMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 30 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Celta Vigo at 46%, draw at 27%, Athletic Club at 27%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-2. The model's headline call was Celta Vigo to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Vigo win
46%
Draw
27%
Club win
27%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.50 – 1.11
Total 2.61
Actual
0 – 2
Total 2 (-0.6 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 0.6 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 73%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
1X
Pre-match: 73%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 27%
✗ Lost