FT · Europe: Europa League · Wednesday, 16 September 2026
Omonia Nicosia 1–0 Celta VigoMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Wednesday, 16 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Omonia Nicosia at 30%, draw at 27%, Celta Vigo at 42%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-0. The model's headline call was Celta Vigo to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Nicosia win
30%
Actual ✓
Draw
27%
Vigo win
42%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.19 – 1.45
Total 2.65
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (-1.6 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.6 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 74%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 27%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals forecasts at 74% confidence because combined expected goals of 2.65 and Celta's attacking edge (1.46 xG) suggest a low-scoring but open contest."