FT · Spain: La Liga · Saturday, 29 August 2026
Real Sociedad 2–1 EspanyolMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 29 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Real Sociedad or draw at 74%. Bawler had Real Sociedad at 50%, the draw at 25% and Espanyol at 26%. The match finished 2–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Real Sociedad win
50%
Result
Draw
25%
Espanyol win
26%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.8 – 1.2
Total 3.0
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (−0.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.7 – 0.8
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.0 of our 3.0.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 81%
Landed
Medium confidence
Real Sociedad or draw
Pre-match: 74%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 36%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Real Sociedad chases European qualification at home while Espanyol plays without stakes, and the xG gap of 0.63 underscores why Over 1.5 Goals forecasts at 81% confidence."