FT · Spain: La Liga · Saturday, 29 August 2026
Real Sociedad 2–1 EspanyolMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 29 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Real Sociedad at 50%, draw at 25%, Espanyol at 26%. The match ended 2-1 — confirming the model's lean toward Real Sociedad.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Sociedad win
50%
Actual ✓
Draw
25%
Espanyol win
26%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.80 – 1.24
Total 3.04
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (-0.0 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.0 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 81%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
1X
Pre-match: 74%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 36%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Real Sociedad chases European qualification at home while Espanyol plays without stakes, and the xG gap of 0.63 underscores why Over 1.5 Goals forecasts at 81% confidence."