FT · Spain: La Liga · Thursday, 03 September 2026
Real Sociedad 0–0 Celta VigoMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 03 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Real Sociedad at 44%, draw at 26%, Celta Vigo at 31%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-0. The model's headline call was Real Sociedad to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Sociedad win
44%
Draw
26%
Actual ✓
Vigo win
31%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.61 – 1.32
Total 2.93
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (-2.9 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 2.9 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 79%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Real Sociedad defend a precarious three-point European margin at home while Celta hold their sixth-place spot, yet Oyarzabal's creative influence (24% of team xG) and Sociedad's 0.31 xG advantage suggest Over 1.5 Goals at 80% remains the model's highest-conviction call."