FT · Spain: La Liga · Sunday, 13 September 2026
Celta Vigo 1–1 MálagaMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 13 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Celta Vigo at 54%, draw at 25%, Málaga at 21%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-1. The model's headline call was Celta Vigo to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Vigo win
54%
Draw
25%
Actual ✓
Málaga win
21%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.73 – 1.00
Total 2.73
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (-0.7 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 0.7 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 76%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Home Win
Pre-match: 54%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 29%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals dominates the forecast at 76% probability because Celta Vigo's 0.73 expected-goals advantage (1.73 vs 1.00) suggests sustained attacking pressure the visitors cannot match."