FT · Europe: Europa League · Thursday, 17 September 2026
Real Sociedad 1–2 AFC BournemouthMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 17 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Real Sociedad at 23%, draw at 23%, AFC Bournemouth at 54%. The match ended 1-2 — confirming the model's lean toward AFC Bournemouth.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Sociedad win
23%
Draw
23%
Bournemouth win
54%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.29 – 2.03
Total 3.32
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (-0.3 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.3 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
X2
Pre-match: 77%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Bournemouth's 0.74 expected-goals advantage and 54% win probability underpin the X2 forecast at 77%, with striker Evanilson (18% of team xG) positioned to exploit Real Sociedad's defensive vulnerability in a wide xG gap."