FT · SPAIN: LaLiga · Friday, 21 August 2026
Real Betis 1–0 Real SociedadMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Friday, 21 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Real Betis at 53%, draw at 24%, Real Sociedad at 22%. The match ended 1-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Real Betis.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Betis win
53%
Actual ✓
Draw
24%
Sociedad win
22%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.83 – 1.11
Total 2.94
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (-1.9 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.9 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 79%
✗ Lost
Medium confidence
Home Win
Pre-match: 53%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 34%
✗ Lost