FT · Spain: La Liga · Monday, 07 September 2026
Getafe 1–1 Celta VigoMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Monday, 07 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Getafe at 36%, draw at 31%, Celta Vigo at 34%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-1. The model's headline call was Getafe to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Getafe win
36%
Draw
31%
Actual ✓
Vigo win
34%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.12 – 1.08
Total 2.20
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (-0.2 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.2 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 64%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 31%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Getafe's three-point deficit to sixth-place safety sharpens their attack at home, while Celta defend a precarious European berth—a desperation gap that projects Over 1.5 Goals at 66%, with both sides averaging 1.15 and 1.11 xG respectively."