How it finished
Arsenal beat Napoli 1–0. Bawler's model had Arsenal in front at 59% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.7 goals; only 1 was scored. Napoli had 5 shots (3 on target) to Arsenal's 26 (8), with 42% of the ball against 58%. Expected goals finished 0.2 to 4.1.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 67%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won Napoli vs Arsenal?
Arsenal beat Napoli 1–0. Bawler's model had Arsenal in front at 59% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.7 goals; only 1 was scored. Napoli had 5 shots (3 on target) to Arsenal's 26 (8), with 42% of the ball against 58%. Expected goals finished 0.2 to 4.1.
What was the final score in Napoli vs Arsenal?
Napoli 0–1 Arsenal, played on 09 Sept 2026 in the Europe: Champions League. Bawler's model had gone into it with Napoli 17%, the draw 24% and Arsenal 59%.
What were the stats in Napoli vs Arsenal?
Full-time: Possession 42%–58%, Expected goals (xG) 0.2–4.1, Shots 5–26, Shots on target 3–8, Shots inside box 2–15, Big chances 0–6, Corners 0–6, Saves 6–3, Fouls 12–11, Offsides 1–1, Yellow cards 2–1.
Did both teams score in Napoli vs Arsenal?
No. It finished 0–1, so Napoli failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 50% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Napoli vs Arsenal right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Arsenal or draw 83%, it finished Arsenal won (59% called); Total goals — we said 2.7, it finished 1; Both teams to score — we said 50%, it finished No; Second pick — we said Over 2.5 goals 52%, it finished Missed.