FT · ENGLAND: Premier League · Monday, 31 August 2026
Aston Villa 0–1 ArsenalMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Monday, 31 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Aston Villa at 26%, draw at 28%, Arsenal at 47%. The match ended 0-1 — confirming the model's lean toward Arsenal.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Villa win
26%
Draw
28%
Arsenal win
47%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.04 – 1.49
Total 2.53
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (-1.5 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.5 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
X2
Pre-match: 75%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 25%
✗ Lost