FT · Europe: Champions League · Wednesday, 09 September 2026
Napoli 0–1 ArsenalMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Wednesday, 09 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Napoli at 17%, draw at 24%, Arsenal at 59%. The match ended 0-1 — confirming the model's lean toward Arsenal.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Napoli win
17%
Draw
24%
Arsenal win
59%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
0.90 – 1.84
Total 2.74
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (-1.7 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.7 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
X2
Pre-match: 83%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 52%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 29%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Arsenal's superior shot quality—generating 1.84 xG versus Napoli's 0.90—makes X2 the high-confidence forecast at 83%, suggesting the visitors will either win or draw at the San Paolo."