FT · ENGLAND: Premier League · Friday, 21 August 2026
Arsenal 3–0 Coventry CityMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Friday, 21 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Arsenal at 74%, draw at 18%, Coventry City at 8%. The match ended 3-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Arsenal.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Arsenal win
74%
Actual ✓
Draw
18%
City win
8%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.31 – 0.66
Total 2.97
Actual
3 – 0
Total 3 (+0.0 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.0 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
1X
Pre-match: 92%
✓ Won
Outside shot
X2
Pre-match: 26%
✗ Lost