FT · ENGLAND: Premier League · Friday, 21 August 2026
Arsenal 3–0 Coventry CityMatch recap & how our call landed · Friday, 21 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Arsenal to win at 74%. Bawler had Arsenal at 74%, the draw at 18% and Coventry City at 8%. The match finished 3–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Arsenal win
74%
Result
Draw
18%
Coventry City win
8%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.3 – 0.7
Total 3.0
Actual
3 – 0
Total 3 (+0.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.8 – 0.3
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.0 of our 3.0.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Arsenal or draw
Pre-match: 92%
Landed
Outside shot
Coventry City or draw
Pre-match: 26%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.