FT · Italy: Serie A · Saturday, 05 September 2026
Internazionale 3–2 NapoliMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 05 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Internazionale at 55%, draw at 25%, Napoli at 20%. The match ended 3-2 — confirming the model's lean toward Internazionale.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Internazionale win
55%
Actual ✓
Draw
25%
Napoli win
20%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.78 – 0.98
Total 2.76
Actual
3 – 2
Total 5 (+2.2 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 2.2 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
1X
Pre-match: 80%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 52%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 30%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Inter's six-point lead with eight games left gives them vastly different stakes than third-place Napoli, and their 0.84 xG advantage—anchored by Lautaro Martínez's creation of 28% of team chances—makes 1X (80% forecast) the model's clear call."