FT · ITALY: Serie A · Saturday, 22 August 2026
Genoa 0–2 NapoliMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 22 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Genoa at 31%, draw at 29%, Napoli at 40%. The match ended 0-2 — confirming the model's lean toward Napoli.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Genoa win
31%
Draw
29%
Napoli win
40%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.12 – 1.29
Total 2.41
Actual
0 – 2
Total 2 (-0.4 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.4 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 69%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 22%
✗ Lost