FT · ITALY: Serie A · Saturday, 22 August 2026
Genoa 0–2 NapoliMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 22 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Napoli or draw at 69%. Bawler had Genoa at 31%, the draw at 29% and Napoli at 40%. The match finished 0–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Genoa win
31%
Draw
29%
Napoli win
40%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.1 – 1.3
Total 2.4
Actual
0 – 2
Total 2 (−0.4 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.7 – 0.8
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.4 of our 2.4.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 69%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 22%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.