FT · Italy: Serie A · Sunday, 13 September 2026
Napoli 1–0 BolognaMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 13 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Napoli at 45%, draw at 28%, Bologna at 27%. The match ended 1-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Napoli.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Napoli win
45%
Actual ✓
Draw
28%
Bologna win
27%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.47 – 1.09
Total 2.56
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (-1.6 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.6 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 72%
✗ Lost
Medium confidence
1X
Pre-match: 73%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 26%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the model's high-confidence call at 72%, anchored by Napoli's 0.38 expected-goals edge and two creative wings—Kvaratskhelia (24% of Napoli's xG) and Orsolini (24% of Bologna's)—likely to generate chances in a low-scoring Serie A context."