FT · Italy: Serie A · Sunday, 13 September 2026
Napoli 1–0 BolognaMatch recap · Sunday, 13 September 2026
Pre-match probability vs result
Napoli win
45%
Result
Draw
28%
Bologna win
27%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 1.1
Total 2.6
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (−1.6 against our forecast)
The match produced 1.6 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.