FT · England: Premier League · Saturday, 12 September 2026
Sunderland 0–2 ArsenalMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 12 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Sunderland at 18%, draw at 26%, Arsenal at 56%. The match ended 0-2 — confirming the model's lean toward Arsenal.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Sunderland win
18%
Draw
26%
Arsenal win
56%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
0.81 – 1.61
Total 2.43
Actual
0 – 2
Total 2 (-0.4 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.4 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
X2
Pre-match: 82%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 23%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Arsenal's 0.80 expected-goals advantage makes X2 (draw or away win) the model's 82% forecast, as Sunderland's creator Le Fée and striker Brobbey face a Gunners attack generating nearly double their output."