Maritimo vs Benfica prediction — Primeira Liga · Sun 6 Sept · 19:00 UK

Primeira Liga · Sun 6 Sept · 19:00 UK
Maritimo 14Draw 20Benfica 66
The call
66%
Benfica to win
3.1
Goals expected
14d 00hUntil lineups lock

Every market the model rates

Maritimo or draw34%
Over 1.5 goals82%
Over 2.5 goals60%
BTTS53%
Maritimo win to nil7%
Benfica or draw86%
Under 3.5 goals62%
Correct score 0–211%

Model inputs

Expected goals gap (xG)-1.3 / match
Head-to-head, last 5MAR 0 · D 0 · BEN 5
Opponent strength indexUpper mid

Head to head

Mar 2023Maritimo 0–3 Benfica
Sept 2022Benfica 5–0 Maritimo
Apr 2022Maritimo 0–1 Benfica
Dec 2021Benfica 7–1 Maritimo
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Common questions

Who will win Maritimo vs Benfica?

Bawler's model rates this match: Benfica are favoured (66% win probability vs 14% for Maritimo, 20% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.

What is the predicted score for Maritimo vs Benfica?

The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Maritimo 0-2 Benfica (10.6% probability). Expected total goals: 3.10.

How does Bawler predict Maritimo vs Benfica?

Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Maritimo 14%, the draw 20% and Benfica 66%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.

Will both teams score in Maritimo vs Benfica?

BTTS: Yes (53% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 0.92 and away expected goals 2.19.

Over or under 2.5 goals in Maritimo vs Benfica?

Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.10. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).

Around this fixture

Liga Portugal table →
All fixtures & results →Maritimo form →Benfica form →