Bawler's model rates this match: Benfica are favoured (66% win probability vs 14% for Maritimo, 20% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Maritimo 0-2 Benfica (10.6% probability). Expected total goals: 3.10.
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Maritimo 14%, the draw 20% and Benfica 66%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
BTTS: Yes (53% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 0.92 and away expected goals 2.19.
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.10. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).